MANG 575 Module 5: Probability

Objectives:

  • Understand the concept of probability
  • Be able to define  classical probability, empirical probability and subjective probability and be able to differentiate between the three
  • Understand conditional and joint probabilities
  • Be able to calculate probabilities using the rules of addition and multiplication

Reading For This Module:

Chapter 5 – Textbook
Textbook Power Points (.ppt)

Opening Vignettes:

 

Introduction:

In previous chapters we used statistics to describe something that happened in the past.  For example, we used the mean to describe the average grade in a statistics class, we used variance to describe the volatility of the grades in the statistics class.  This form of statistics is known as descriptive statisticsNow we turn our attention, to the chance that something will occur in the future.  This is known as Inferential statistics.  We use inferential statistics to estimate the probability or likelihood that a particular event will occur.Inference deals with conclusions about a population based on a sample taken from the population.For example, marketing firms need to get an idea of the probability that a new product will be accepted by consumers.  What is the probability that a new car’s transmission will not malfunction before the warranty has expired.An example that we are all very familiar with is the weatherman’s prediction as to the chance of rain.

 

Dr. Waller Lecture: Probability (video)

Lecture PowerPoints (.pptx)

Reflection:

Summary of this module.

Practice Quiz

Practice Quiz for this module, feel free to take multiple times.

Quizzes

Take the quiz for this module on Canvas.

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